Smartwatches have potential to minimise spread of disease

This potentially has wide-reaching benefits for public health crises and pandemics. In the case of Covid-19 and other viruses, many illnesses are contagious before people are aware they’re sick, during which the illness spreads.

“Unlike during the pandemic, we now have concrete data on how pandemics develop, and how effective different measures are at curbing the spread. Add to this that wearable technology is now extremely effective when it comes to detecting the very early physiological signs of infection, and we are much better prepared,” explained Märt Vesinurm, from Aalto University in Finland.

Wearable devices are adept at recognising the physiological markers of illnesses, even days before the wearer themselves are aware. Everyday smartwatches can, for example, tell with approximately 88% accuracy - using respiration and heart rate, skin temperature and other parameters - if a user is coming down with Covid-19. This accuracy rises to 90% accuracy with the flu, according to the researchers.

“Even at the lower end of compliance, if people receive and act on an earlier warning by self-isolating, the impact is significant. Even just a 66-75% reduction in social contacts soon after detection by smartwatches — keeping in mind that that’s on a par with what you’d normally do if you had cold symptoms — can lead to a 40-65% decrease in disease transmission compared to someone isolating from the onset of symptoms,” added Vesinurm.

The research showers that higher compliance, as seen in a pandemic situation, could stop a disease in its tracks.

Smartwatches have the potential to help with the avian flu epidemic, Vesinurm said.

“I see no reason why not. As we gather more specific data about how different illnesses affect these measurements, there’s no reason we couldn’t distinguish between diseases, from bird flu and HIV to the common cold, especially when used in conjunction with advanced machine learning methods and other data from the user.”

These researchers are the first to take real-world data from peer-reviewed epidemiological, biological and behavioural studies, bringing it together to mathematically model how infection spreads at a population level. Using this combination of data and tech, Vesinurm anticipates a future in which smartwatches fundamentally change how we respond to pandemics, at individual and policy levels.

“People are used to wearable devices and they’re likely to trust them. While they’re not yet diagnostic, they could help make unpopular approaches like masks, lockdowns and invasive testing more targeted and less of a blunt instrument,” he said. 

An early warning from a smartwatch would be the cue to take other actions, such as getting a PCR test, wearing a mask, or ‘not visiting your grandma’. The action would depend on the social context at the time, and an individual’s assessment of risk.

Having this information provides individuals with the ability to make choices that keep their loved ones and community safe, as well as give decision-makers a powerful tool.

“It could be that governments find it most cost effective in a pandemic situation to provide every person who wants one with a smartwatch — although of course, this comes with its own ethical considerations,” said Vesinurm. “Either way, with early detection literally at our fingertips, I see a lot of reason to hope.”