Penn slashes 2023 semiconductor market forecast to -10%

This industry pick-me-up arrives courtesy of a surprise 6% sequential market spurt in Q2 2023.

A surprise because a normal recovery rate for the market is four, sometimes five quarters. Bottoming out after three quarters indicates “Sunny weather ahead,” says Penn.

“Logic and micros, driven by the burgeoning AI market, led the advance,” Penn explains.

“Will the recovery last or will it wither on the vine? That’s unclear at this point,” adds Penn.

Nonetheless his bullish forecast is for an 8.5% market slide. His bearish forecast signals an 11.5% dip.

His early outlook for 2024 is a 9% market uptick – “statistically back to high single digit growth,” Penn comments.

The magnitude and timing of 2024 depends on customers burning off excess inventory built up through 2022 – which says Penn is unlikely to be achieved before Q4 2023, and possibly longer if end demand softens - and a healthier global economy.

Penn is unperturbed about his volte face forecast saying the timing has affected the maths, but not the analysis. And he points out that in 2022 he was the only analyst to forecast a negative market in 2023.