Will oil price changes affect EVs?

China must reduce local pollution in the face of strong protests and a large number of deaths every year: many Chinese cities no longer prosecute for jumping a red light because you often cannot see them due to smog; and aborted plane landings due to smog are common. The situation with particulates of less than 2.5µm, the ones that can cause health problems, is serious. The WHO recommends under 20µg per cubic meter but much of China has at least four times that level. A drop in the oil price does not hinder urgent action being taken on that.

As explained in 'Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2015-2025', the price of oil will not make indoor forklifts legal if they belch diesel gases or make diesel practicable underwater. Indeed, diesel pollution has been reclassified as a severe carcinogen.

Part of WHO, the IARC's major goal is to identify causes of cancer. It classifies diesel engine exhaust as 'carcinogenic to humans', based on sufficient evidence that it is linked to an increased risk of lung cancer, as well as limited evidence linking it to an increased risk of bladder cancer. Health concerns about diesel exhaust relate not only to cancer, but also to other health problems such as lung and heart diseases. That will not change because diesel is cheap.

Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman, IDTechEx, comments: "However, there could be secondary factors at play such as politicians gaining power in countries such as the USA who push for 'profit now'. They may cite low diesel prices as reason for easing support for EVs but IDTechEx does not currently anticipate anything dramatic."