Total PC unit forecast downgraded as tablet shipments shrink

Five years ago touchscreen tablets began pouring into the personal computing marketplace, stealing growth from standard personal computers and signalling the start of what has been widely described as the 'post-PC' era. Led by Apple’s iPad systems, tablet shipments overtook notebook PCs in 201, and it appeared as if they would surpass total personal computer units (counting both desktop and portable systems) by 2016. However, that scenario no longer seems possible after tablet growth lost significant momentum in 2014 and then nearly stalled out in the first half of 2015 due to the rise in popularity of large-screen smartphones and the lack of interest in new tablets that do not add enough features or capabilities to convince existing users to buy replacements. Consequently, IC Insights has downgraded its forecast for the overall personal computing market, including much lower growth in tablets and continued weakness in standard PCs (Figure 1).

Figure 1 - Total personal computing unit shipments

The updated forecast shows total personal computing unit shipments (desktop PCs, notebook PCs, tablets, and Internet/cloud-computing “thin-client” systems) dropping 1% in 2015 to 545m. In the original forecast of the 2015 IC Market Drivers report, total personal computing system shipments were projected to rise 8% in 2015 to 609m units, followed by a 10% increase in 2016 to 670m. The revised outlook cuts the CAGR of personal computing unit shipments to 2.1% between 2013 and 2018. Total personal computing system shipments are now projected to reach 578m in 2018.

Worldwide shipments of keyboard-equipped standard PCs (desktops and notebooks) peaked in 2012 at 345m, but the CAGR is now expected to slump to -0.5% in the 2013-2018 period. In the updated outlook, tablets are projected to account for 45% of total systems sold in 2018 (259m units) versus the MD15’s original forecast of 57% (423m) that year. Further into the future, tablets are now expected to account for about half of personal computing system shipments with the remaining units being divided between standard PCs and Internet/cloud-centric platforms.