Telecom revenue will fall as tech fails to deliver value

Total worldwide telecoms revenues from mobile and fixed broadband services will grow 14% between 2022 and 2027 to reach €1.2 trillion according to latest research from Omdia.

However, monthly ARPU (average revenue per user) combined across both mobile and fixed broadband will fall by 4.2% from €7.48 in 2022 to €7.16 in 2027.

In mobile markets, it is now evident that 5G will not be sufficient to offset ARPU decline as customers are unwilling to pay more for it. Unlimited data and video streaming services bundled exclusively on 5G contracts have had some success, but this only gives the industry the illusion of a 5G ARPU uplift.

In fixed broadband markets, the transition to fibre has had a net positive impact in most cases as the technology offers a much-needed step-change in home broadband quality of service on the back of the pandemic. However, markets with high fibre penetration are seeing a significant drop in ARPU such as France, Spain and China as competition intensifies and there isn’t a clear monetisation path for fibre customers once they transitioned.

Omdia Research Director Ronan de Renesse said: “People don’t buy technology; they buy fun exciting new experiences. There is a misconception that operators should be reselling the technology they buy directly to customers, and it doesn’t work. The network is the bedrock on which innovation and creativity can flourish like 4G and mobile apps. It is not just up to operators to solve the ARPU growth challenge but rather the rest of the digital services ecosystem. We will be discussing this issue as a matter of priority at the upcoming Network X event in Amsterdam.”

Omdia forecasts 5G will account for 5.9 billion subscriptions in 2027 equivalent to a population penetration of 70.9%. Consumer residential fixed broadband subscriptions delivered via fibre to the home will exceed 1 billion subscriptions by 2027 equivalent to a household penetration of 41.9%.

Ronan de Renesse and a team of Omdia analysts will be at Network X between 18 – 20 October 2022.