BBMC capacity to reach 7.4m in 2018, predicts report

27th January 2015

Barney Scott

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In its latest report, Lux Research has predicted that the capacity of emerging Bio-Based Materials and Chemicals (BBMC) technology will more than triple from 2008 to 2018, rising to 7.4m metric tons. Lux predicts that the United States and Brazil will drive capacity growth to nearly 3m tons in the Americas alone.

Lux Research analysts used Lux's BBMC Tracker, a global database of over 200 production facilities, and conducted hundreds of interviews with leading innovators and producers to estimate capacity growth.

Among their findings, Lux made the prediction that lignocellulosics (dry plant matter) will be fastest-growing feedstock. Sugar and starch will remain the dominant feedstocks, accounting for 58% of total capacity, but capacity fed by lignocellulosics, such as risk husks and corn stover, will register the fastest growth, at a whopping 85% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

According to Lux, intermediate chemicals such as lactic acid and monoethylene glycol will hold a nearly 40% share of the total capacity, with 2.94m metric tons. Polymers, like polylactic acid and bio-derived polyethylene, will gain a 32% share with 2.39m metric tons, but bio-oils and derivatives will grow the fastest at a CAGR of 38%, crossing 1m metric tons in capacity in 2018.

Speciality chemicals, led by ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, Dow Ecolibrium plasticiser, and farnesene, expanded rapidly from almost no capacity in 2010 to over 582,000 metric tons in 2014. However, due to the limited number of companies in this space set to scale up to commercial volumes, Lux expects this segment to grow slowly at a CAGR of just 4% through 2018.

Lux's illustration of nameplate capacity (in thousand metric tons) for different materials & chemicals, between 2005 and 2018.

The report, titled ‘Capacity Growth and Trends of Emerging Bio-based Material and Chemical Technologies,’ is part of the Lux Research Bio-based Materials and Chemicals Intelligence service.

“Strong growth is likely in North America, with 17 BBMC facilities set to come online, many driven by emerging technology like Elevance Renewable Sciences’ metathesis technology and Butamax Advanced Biofuels’ retrofit for the production of isobutanol,” said Andrew Soare, Senior Analyst, Lux Research, and the lead author of the aforementioned Lux report. “Some of the planned facilities, like those of Butamax, plan to retrofit existing ethanol facilities, a move that is likely to accelerate in the coming years.”