Cellular IoT connections will reach 5.4bn in 2030

The focus is primarily on 5G RedCap, 5G Massive IoT, and 4G LTE Cat-1bis modules, with forecasts indicating a rise to 5.4 billion cellular IoT connections by 2030. This shift emphasises the growing importance of sophisticated cellular connectivity solutions in the evolving technological landscape.

The study also indicates the onset of widespread adoption of 5G RedCap starting from 2024, positioning it as a mid-tier connectivity option for 5G devices that do not require the high specifications of Ultra-Reliable Low Latency Communications (uRLLC) and Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB). This technology is expected to future-proof devices in anticipation of the eventual decline of 4G post-2030.

“2024 will be a pivotal year for 5G RedCap growth. This will begin in China, where most volume is expected and in due course subsidies will bring the module Average Selling Price (ASP) down to similar pricing as LTE Cat-1,” commented Alexander Thompson, Senior Analyst for IoT at Omdia.

The forecast further suggests that over 60% of IoT module shipments will originate from the Asian & Oceania region in 2023, accounting for around 80% of IoT connections. The automotive sector is identified as a major contributor, expected to see the highest number of module shipments due to the rising demand for smart vehicles with integrated 5G connectivity.

“Across the IoT value chain, Application Enablement Platforms (AEPs) continues to be the leading revenue generator. There remains a role for industry specific/pure-play AEPs despite the exponential growth of hyperscaler offerings and financial constraints for startups in the current economy,” added Andrew Brown, Practice Lead for Omdia’s IoT group.

Omdia's Cellular IoT Market Tracker 2023-2030 provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest trends in the cellular IoT market, offering detailed insights by region, air interface, and application of module shipments, module revenues, connections (installed base), and connectivity revenues.