Exploring the future of drones in logistics

By Mark Patrick, Director of Technical Content, EMEA, Mouser Electronics  

Organisations that ship parcels to consumers have been experimenting with drones for several years, and all seem eager to expand those operations.

The market for drones

The future of haulage is bright. Markets And Markets calculates that the delivery drone segment of the overall electric drone market was worth $228 million in 2022. The research firm projects the market segment will grow rapidly to $5.5 billion by 2030.

Drones have long been capable of identifying objects, picking them up, navigating to a destination, and depositing items – all autonomously. Europe is positioned to be the second-largest market for delivery drones, with an expected value of $6,146.1 million by 2030 but the worldwide market has been held in check by safety concerns that prohibit flying delivery drones out of the sight of human operators.

These safety concerns are prompting European regulatory bodies like the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) to develop comprehensive regulations for drone operation. These regulations address airspace access, pilot licensing, drone identification, and safety protocols. For example, EASA is developing frameworks for the operation of drones beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS). Pilot programmes and trials are underway to test the technology and gather data to inform future regulations. This decision paves the way for the delivery drone industry to gain a foothold in the market. While these regulations are necessary for ensuring safety, they can also add complexity and cost to drone operations, hindering market growth.

Pioneers of delivery drones

As a testament to how important the delivery drone market is, some of the largest companies in the world are participating in it.

Amazon was one of the first to test a delivery drone service. The company recently said it would expand its Prime Air service in Texas and announced plans to introduce it in one location each in the UK and Italy before the end of 2024.

Uber is experimenting with a drone service to supplement its Uber Eats service. The proposal is to use drones to deliver food from restaurants to designated locations. Uber drivers would then pick up the food packages from these locations and drive them the last mile to the customers.

Uber’s decision not to deliver directly to customers calls attention to some of the biggest shortcomings of today’s drone technology. It is currently financially impractical to build a delivery drone fleet that can navigate with enough precision in densely populated areas to accurately, reliably, and gently deposit meals on doorsteps. Delivering to a specific apartment is so logistically complicated there’s no practical way to do it using a drone.

There are other issues with last-mile delivery drones. Most in use today have maximum payloads of two to five pounds. Delivery drones also tend to be quite light and, depending on the model, could be hindered by wind or rain; they might not be able to fly at all in severe weather conditions.

Drones will be increasingly used not only for commercial package delivery but also for a wide range of other purposes, including emergency response and safety monitoring. If only some of the possible uses of drones become popular, the skies will quickly become crowded. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and similar agencies around the world have yet to determine precisely how to manage all that air traffic.

What’s next

The performance of drones will continue to improve as the various technologies they integrate evolve. Batteries will gradually become more efficient and lighter. They will also gradually hold greater charge, extending their range and the time needed before having to recharge.

Continually evolving sensor technology will help autonomous operations become safer and navigation more precise. Some current examples of new sensors being used to improve drone performance include the NEO-M8U Untethered Dead Reckoning (UDR) Module from u-blox – which uses UDR technology to provide continuous navigation without requiring vehicle speed information – and the Quectel LC86G Compact GNSS Module, which contains an enhanced chipset and supports GPS, GLONASS, BDS, Galileo, and QZSS.

As electric drone companies and their customers accumulate more experience safely operating increasingly capable autonomous drones, the regulatory hurdles are likely to be lowered, encouraging further adoption.