Study on battery recycling shows China is in 1st place

As electric vehicle (EV) battery production escalates, so does the demand for essential raw materials. Concerns about supply chain risks, environmental impact, and precarious labour conditions in the mining and transportation of these materials have brought battery material recycling into sharp focus for researchers, policymakers, and industry leaders.

Specifically, the study suggests that by 2059, China may rely entirely on recycling to fulfil its primary lithium needs, traditionally sourced from mining, for EV batteries. Europe and the US are expected to reach this milestone after 2070. For cobalt, recycling could suffice for China's needs by 2045, in Europe by 2052, and in the US by 2056. Regarding nickel, China might meet its demand through recycling as early as 2046, with Europe and the US following suit in 2058 and 2064, respectively.

Prior research has examined the supply and demand of recycled battery materials, but the timeline for achieving complete circularity – a balance of supply and demand – remained unclear. The research team also explored strategies for accelerating this equilibrium. Prof. von Delft highlights that quicker electrification in the automotive industry, particularly as proposed in the EU, could hasten this process. The rationale is that the swifter the integration of EVs into the market, the sooner there will be ample used batteries available for recycling. As Jannis Wesselkämper, a PhD student on the team, notes, recycling could meet raw material demands earlier if battery sizes are reduced and the trend of using batteries in a 'second life' – such as for solar power storage – is avoided.

The team employed dynamic material flow analysis to project future demand and the availability of recyclable raw materials. Their research utilised current studies and market forecasts related to battery production, sales, and corresponding raw material demands.