Graphene to grow despite 'killer application' lack

IDTechEx Research has been analysing the market for 3 years now and has published its data/forecasts, findings and insights in its report: ‘Graphene Markets, Technologies and Opportunities 2014-2024’.

The graphene community continues to dream up a steady and divergent pipeline of long-term applications. Despite this, there is still a lack of so-called ‘killer application’, and suppliers are pursuing a subsection go-to-market strategy. This will inevitably wear down the prices in the long-run.

IDTechEx notes that the competition with black carbon continues to apply pressure on carbon nanotube prices, and finds that today, commercial players have more realistic expectations, showing a convergence of focus on composite and energy storage applications and en masse migration further downstream to offer intermediary products. This is a change from recent times in which companies had over-ambitious plans and their (typically) small resources were spread over too many addressable markets.

The announced production capacity worldwide is estimated as being close to 500tpa, spread across more than 20 players. Despite the comparatively low base, there is a large over-capacity on the market, which has been installed in anticipation of the first phase of demand after the initial qualification periods. This is not atypical as suppliers take the risk to prepare for the market uptake.

Activity in China is on the rise with bold production capacity announcements from several suppliers of graphene nanoplatelets and CVD graphene. Chinese entities have already filed more than 2,000 graphene related patents. Korean interest is also strong with Samsung and LG pulling the strings while the industry is leveraging its experience, particularly with carbon nanotubes, to create a local supply chain.

The investment in graphene also continues. In total, approximately $150m has been invested in graphene companies, although the investment is spread over at least 20 companies. The portfolio of investors is also diverse, including venture capitalists but also strategic investors from a variety of sectors such as steel manufacturing, graphite mining, consumer electronics, chemical and material, and oil and gas.

Graphene is often compared with carbon nanotubes as they share many similar material properties, as well as levels of media attention. Carbon nanotubes have however found qualified success in a variety of sectors as additives such as plastic car body parts that can be electrostatically painted, plastic fuel lines/systems that can dissipate electrostatic charge and Li ion batteries. In total, IDTechEx estimates the global production capacity to be 2300-2600tpa, with China, Korea, USA and Europe leading the way, respectively.

Graphene players can learn from the carbon nanotube industry. A persistent challenge with CNTs was difficult dispersion, due to bundling of nanotubes. Early stage results suggest that graphene is easier to disperse, especially if the surface is not fully flat, as the tendency to re-stack is reduced. Graphene can also be produced in film form (e.g. CVD graphene). This targets a separate set of markets such as transparent conductive films, although here the competition is stiff both from the incumbent solution and better-performing alternatives.

Given graphene's mediocre performance, IDTechEx does not envisage a role other than in niche corners of the increasingly fragmented touch screen market. While it is too early to definitively state, sparse early indications suggest that graphene may pose a lower health and safety risk than carbon nanotubes. There is still a mountain of work still to be done, but if proven, this will reduce the liability asymmetry from which users suffer and will accelerate uptake. Graphene also appears to be better at bestowing a range of functionalities simultaneously to its host material. This multi-functional ability will also be a differentiator, mostly against long-term and entrenched incumbents such as graphite powders and carbon black.

Today there is no single graphene cost on the market, as it varies depending on quality and supplier. In general, however, average prices will fall. 2015 will see product uptake in many niche but somewhat symbol sectors. Here, graphene will be used as an additive in composites and, in the long term, energy storage devices. IDTechEx projects that the market at the material level will grow from $20m in 2014 to close to $400m in 2024.