The results of several recent forecasts of the semiconductor market has shown an indication towards negative growth. In October last year, Semiconductor Intelligence projected the market would grow 1.0% in 2015 despite several predictions of the market going negative. 2015 finished with a slight 0.2% decline.

Analysis from consultancy firm Semiconductor Intelligence has shown that the outlook for semiconductor capital expenditures (capex) in 2016 is weak. Gartner’s January 2016 forecast called for a decline of 4.7%. IC Insights in February projected a 0.8% decline. The table below shows the Gartner forecast along with the capex forecasts from the top three spenders (Intel, Samsung and TSMC) which account for about half of total industry capex.

CES 2016 last week in Las Vegas was a huge success. Over 3800 exhibitors occupied over 2.47 million square feet. Attendances was over 170,000 including 50,000 from outside the U.S. CES was put on by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA,  previously the Consumer Electronics Association). The name changes reflect the broadening of high technology consumer goods to include more than electronics - software, systems, advanced materials, etc.

The December forecast from Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), revealed that shipments of semiconductor wafer fab equipment are expected to grow 2.5% in 2016 after 0.5% growth in 2015. However, Gartner is more pessimistic, with its October forecast calling for fab equipment to decline 0.5% in 2015 and drop 2.5% in 2016. Gartner projects the market will return to growth in 2017 through 2019.

The semiconductor market is currently in a slow growth period. After 10% growth in 2014, the market is expected to only show low single-digit growth in 2015. Our own forecast at Semiconductor Intelligence is 1.5%. In several previous market slowdowns, inventories in the channel have climbed as some companies were slow to adjust their inventories to match lower demand levels.

The Chinese stock market (as measured by the Hang Seng Index) dropped 11% from 14th August to 24th August over concerns of a slowing economy. In reaction, the U.S. stock market (as measured by the S&P 500) dropped 11% from 17th August to 25th August. The China market has since rebounded 2% while the U.S. market rebounded 5%. Will a slowing China drag down the global economy? China accounts for about half of the global semiconductor market. Wi...

By Bill Jewell, Consultant, Semiconductor Intelligence. The obvious comparison to a potential IoT bubble is the internet bubble in the 1990s. The bursting of the internet bubble in 2000 put many marginal companies out of business and led to major declines in the stock market value of all internet related companies. However, it did not change the inevitable trend of the internet becoming pervasive in our lives. 

Global real gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2015 is expected to reach 3.5%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) April 2015 report. 2015 is a slight acceleration of 0.1% points from 3.4% growth in 2014. The IMF projects 2016 global growth of 3.8%, an acceleration of 0.3% points from 2015. The table below shows GDP growth and acceleration/deceleration for advanced economies and emerging/developing economies. Key countries are ...

Global electronics production is on a generally positive trend. The chart below shows three-month-average change versus a year ago (3/12 change) for electronics production by country or region in local currency. Total industrial production is shown for Europe and South Korea since electronics production data is not available.

Semiconductor industry capital expenditures in 2015 are expected to be $69bn in 2015, up 6% from $65bn in 2014, according to IC Insights. Semiconductor Intelligence has compiled a 2015 capital expenditure outlook by company. The major memory companies account for 38% of 2015 capital expenditure and the major foundries account for 27%.