China propels LiDAR for automotive

It is essential to differentiate the two markets, PC & LCV and Robotaxi, as the dynamics are different.

Yole Intelligence has been following the LiDAR market since 2019, and, from the start, the LiDAR market for robotaxis has always been higher than the market for passenger cars. Indeed, the first robotaxi services were put in place in August 2016 with NuTonomy in Singapore, and the next steps were taken in 2017 with the entry of Waymo and Cruise, which started in Phoenix, AZ, and San Francisco, CA.

In its LiDAR for Automotive report, 2023 edition, the company, part of Yole Group, points out the global emergence of Chinese players, such as DiDi, AutoX, and Baidu. These players are opening new services in various cities worldwide, pulling the LiDAR market for robotaxis far ahead of the LiDAR market for passenger cars.

Pierrick Boulay, Senior Analyst, Lighting and ADAS systems at Yole Intelligence, commented: “In 2022, we are at a crossroads as these two markets generated almost the same revenue: $169 million for passenger cars and $147 million for robotaxis. However, growth potential differs for these two markets: a 69% CAGR between 2022 and 2028 for passenger cars compared to a 25% CAGR for robotaxis in the same period.”

The PC & LCV market has taken off as 144 design wins have been noted since 2018; 114 of them are scheduled for 2023 or soon thereafter.

In the automotive sensor market, Chinese OEMs are clearly pushing for the integration of LiDAR solutions in their vehicle. While EU or U.S. OEMs limit LiDAR to the F segment, Chinese OEMs are now releasing cars with LiDAR in the D segment. These are much more affordable than those in the F segment, and as there is a much higher volume of cars, LiDAR will proliferate. More than 25 different Chinese OEMs are on the way to implementing LiDAR in their cars.

The automotive LiDAR ecosystem, including both the PC&LCV and robotaxi segments, is already quite large, with 50 companies monitored by Yole. Some are already in mass production, while others are still in the R&D phase and working on the next generations of LiDAR.

For Pierrick Boulay: “Regarding the robotaxi market, few players are generating significant revenue. Hesai Technology controls the market with a 67% market share as their LiDARs can be found in most robotaxis, such as Cruise, Aurora, Apollo, DiDi, Pony.ai, and AutoX. Indeed, Hesai Technology replaced Velodyne, which previously led this market.”

In the PC&LCV market, things are evolving rapidly and are expected to change again in the coming years.

Since 2018, Valeo has been a clear leader in the market as they supplied most of the cars released with LiDAR, thanks to partnerships with Audi, Honda, and Mercedes.

In 2022, the market changed dramatically as Innovusion, which was relatively unknown before, set a high mark with more than 56,000 LiDARs shipped to Nio. Valeo was close to Innovusion, and the volume difference was only a few hundred units.

One of the most significant changes was the entry of Hesai Technology, ranked 3rd, and the 4th place of RoboSense. These Chinese companies only started to ship in volume in 2022 and have partnerships with most Chinese OEMs.

The remaining players share the final 11% of the market with 8% for Livox due to their partnership with XPeng.

According to Yole Intelligence, in 2023, Hesai Technology and RoboSense are expected to lead the LiDAR market for passenger cars, taking the first two places. This is a big win for Chinese players, but Valeo is still in good shape as it communicated on a one-billion-dollar order for their Scala 3.