Automotive semiconductor: a 100 billion device industry in 2028

Key drivers are numerous and include electrification, requiring new substrates like SiC , advanced technology nodes as small as 16nm/10nm for ADAS components and a growing demand for memory, especially DRAM and computing power for Level 4 and 5 autonomous vehicles.

At the wafer level, Yole Intelligence announces wafer shipments to increase from 37.4 million units in 2022 to 50.5 million in 2028. It includes memory, processors, and MCUs leading the way for 12-inch wafers. SiC devices will continue to grow due to EV/HEV adoption, while advanced nodes below 16nm will be driven by ADAS technology.

Yole Intelligence has been following the automotive industry for a while, with a dedicated team specialised on sensing & actuating, imaging, and computing technologies. In its new Semiconductor Trends for Automotive 2023 report, the company, part of Yole Group, provides an in-depth understanding of the changing car industry ecosystem and supply chain. The study provides a complete overview of the technological trends and challenges, as well as 2018-2028 forecasts of market value, volume, and wafers for automotive applications. It also gives key technical insights into and analyses of future technology trends and challenges.

OEMs are increasingly embracing vertical integration to electrify their operations, with strategies varying by industry segment and region. Power electronics and semiconductors are vital focuses, with some OEMs making direct investments.

Although after the COVID linked chip shortage, the focuses of automotive OEMs to semiconductor keep increasing, we see in general a lack of comprehensive strategies on semiconductor among OEMs. For the first time, Yole Intelligence build an analytical model dedicated to automotive semiconductors. The so called ‘Yole Triple-C Model’ is designed to help OEMs in Car, Chip, and Confine metrics, representing respectively the coverage of semiconductor technologies, the depth of involvement in semiconductor value chain, and the resilience of semiconductor supply chain.

Passenger and light commercial vehicles are shifting into a ‘Market-driven’ phase of innovation adoption, while medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles are starting their electrification journey, primarily due to incentives and regulations.

Key trends in powertrain and electrification include:

• Integration of high-voltage systems
• Adoption of 800V technology for fast charging
• The introduction of SiC in supply chains
• The increasing popularity of dedicated BEV platforms
• ESG concerns are also growing in importance. Si IGBTs are gaining traction to address cost barriers, especially in hybrid solutions with SiC MOSFETs

The adoption of ADAS is on the rise, driven by safety regulations and the pursuit of higher autonomy levels. The use of LiDAR sensors is growing, with Chinese OEMs making them more accessible in the D segment. Sensor diversity necessitates robust processors to handle data from various sources.