AI could replace around 300 million jobs in the EU and US

Whilst this may seem like an all-out attack on the job prospects of millions at face value, it doesn’t come without some benefits such as the potential for a whole new genre of jobs opening and an overall boom in productivity.

Beyond just this, the increased involvement of AI in the workforce could increase the total annual value of goods and services by 7% globally, a massive increase. Generative AI, such as the popular ChatGPT, is pioneering this shift in the workforce, able to create content at a human level at a considerably quicker pace.

The threat to employment opportunities

Here in the UK, the government is eager to promote AI in the UK workforce and beyond, believing it to be able to “ultimately drive productivity across the economy.” At the same time, the government has also been keen to reassure the public that AI will not take the jobs of millions, but only enhance them.

Michelle Donelan, Technology Secretary, explained: “We want to make sure that AI is complementing the way we work in the UK, not disrupting it – making our jobs better, rather than taking them away.”

The report contains analysis on what sectors will be more affected by the increased implementation of AI. 46% of tasks relating to administrative work and 44% of those in legal professions could be almost entirely automated, whereas only 6% of construction or just 4% of maintenance work could be automated, for example.

The potential for lower wages

“The only thing I am sure of is that there is no way of knowing how many jobs will be replaced by generative AI,” reflects Carl Benedikt Frey, Future-of-Work Director at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford University.

“What ChatGPT does, for example, is allow more people with average writing skills to produce essays and articles.

“Journalists will therefore face more competition, which would drive down wages, unless we see a very significant increase in the demand for such work.

“Consider the introduction of GPS technology and platforms like Uber. Suddenly, knowing all the streets in London had much less value – and so incumbent drivers experienced large wage cuts in response, of around 10% according to our research.

“The result was lower wages, not fewer drivers.

“Over the next few years, generative AI is likely to have similar effects on a broader set of creative tasks.”

This has already been seen in areas such as art, with art-generating AI stepping on the opportunities of small artists, giving anyone the capability to create high-quality art.

It’s not all black and white

However, as it stands, nothing is necessarily clear cut with different reports finding different results.

According to research that was cited by the report, almost 60% of current workers are in employment occupations that did not exist in 1940, suggesting how advancements have created more job opportunities than ever before. However, other research suggests that technological changes since the 1980s only moved to displace more workers than it puts back in.

Therefore, something like generative AI, just like the innovations of bygone days, could result in a reduction of employment in the near term but have questionable outcomes in the long term.

As Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, explains, “all firm predictions should be taken with a very large pinch of salt.

“We do not know how the technology will evolve or how firms will integrate it into how they work.

“That’s not to say that AI won’t disrupt the way we work – but we should focus too on the potential living standards gains from higher-productivity work and cheaper-to-run services, as well as the risk of falling behind of other firms and economies better adapt to technological change.”