Residential batteries: the story did not start with Tesla and will not end with Tesla

Residential batteries, together with battery applications in commercial, industrial and utilities, are considered to be the next big opportunity in batteries besides electric vehicles. Indeed, this will become a $6bn market by 2026 as predicted by the new IDTechEx Research report Batteries for Residential, Commercial, Industrial and Utility Applications 2016-2026: Technologies, Markets, Players and Opportunities.

Tesla brought global attention to the market

On 30th April, 2015, Tesla officially launched its residential and commercial/utility-scale energy system products "Powerwall" and "Powerpack" in Los Angeles, with the price well below earlier expectation (the production of 10kWh Powerwall was stopped due to the relatively low price-performance ratio).

This kind of battery system was not the first approach in the battery systems. As early as 2013, SolarCity already launched an energy storage system called DemandLogic, which was used to reduce businesses’ peak demand, provide backup power during outages and potentially save energy costs.

This system also utilised Tesla battery technology - the same lithium-ion battery packs used in Tesla cars. However, the price of DemandLogic battery system at that time was expensive and was mainly for medium-scale applications.

Tesla always wanted to launch a residential battery storage system that can be accepted by household. The launch of Powerwall could incorporate SolarCity’s plan in residential energy storage. The merge between Tesla and SolarCity further proved it.

Tesla the follower?

In a typical fashion Tesla managed to attract tremendous attention, yet Tesla Energy is neither the first nor the best product of its kind. In fact, in many ways, Tesla is a follower. For example, the German startup Sonnen started to sell residential battery as early as 2011, whilst in the same year in Japan, Sony and Sharp launched their products after the Tohoku earthquake with focused attention on the critical importance of back-up residential energy storage in emergency situations.

Figure 1 - Comparison of current and future residential battery products in the market

Current market status

Today the residential battery sector is not only being chased by battery makers. Instead, a cross-industry business is taking shape as evidenced by the large number of recent acquisitions, joint-venture and investment.

Battery business for consumer electronics has gradually reached a plateau and automotive companies are moving into residential/grid battery areas to de-risk their investment and further reduce battery costs with the help of economies of scale.

The market is therefore fragmented with companies in various areas jumping in such as solar cells integrators, automotive players, cell makers, battery manufacturers, chemical suppliers, trading companies, power utilities, etc.

It is obvious residential batteries can generate both economic values that can be monetised and values that are not directly monetised in households and electricity networks. An important consideration is whether they can demonstrate positive economic return based on current price range and value streams, which is a significant factor when predicting the future deployment. Technology is not the major driver, as analysed in this report.

The key questions answered in this report

Key questions as shown below will be answered in the report:

• Where can energy storage fit into the electricity system?
• What are the battery energy storage benefits/values?
• What are the number of projects and rated power in grid-connected energy storage and battery storage, segmented by project status, technology, company and country?
• How does the costs influence the deployment of battery storage systems?
• How does the cross industry expand the battery-related business scope?
• What are the market drivers?
• Are the battery energy storage systems economic/commercial in corresponding applications?
• What is the market status in various countries worldwide?
• What are the winning battery technology(ies)?
• Are there regulatory barriers?
• What threats are there in the market?
• What is the reality behind the hype?
• What are the price projects?
• What are the differences in opportunities between behind-the-meter market and utility-scale markets?
• What business models can capture most value streams?
• Which parts of the value chain stand to benefit the most?
• What is the potential market size?
• Which "go-to-market" strategies work better?
• Who are potential customers and active players?