Analysis

Electric & hybrid bus market to reach $100bn by 2025

6th February 2015
Nat Bowers
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IDTechEx's 'Electric Buses 2015-2025' report finds that buses will account for over 20% of the total future hybrid and pure EV value market, meaning that those seeking leadership in the market must take the bus forecasts seriously.

Faced with 200,000 people dying of air pollution yearly and rocketing oil imports, China will make 10m school buses and 1.6m large buses electric. The resulting ultra-low cost base will allow Chinese bus makers to flood the market. Nonetheless, the emerging global market for hybrid and pure electric buses is predicted to be valued at over $100bn yearly in 2025, providing variety and opportunities for everyone.

The report explains how the technology is completely changing so new suppliers will enter new value chains. For example, it looks at diesel versus regular hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel cell buses and the pure electric battery and supercapacitor buses.

It notes that a recent order for 2,000 pure electric large buses and others at the thousand level sit awkwardly with the popular understanding that massive price and pitiful range make them little more than a distant dream. This report is replete with summary figures, diagrams, sales forecasts and technology roadmaps. Only this report is fully researched in 2014-5: vital given the rapidly changing league table of largest manufacturers and markets and the many new technologies.

The report has many original, very detailed tables and figures and pages. It assesses over 100 bus manufacturers and over 140 manufacturers of lithium-based batteries. Fuel cell bus trials over the last 25 years and plans for them in future are examined in detail and conclusions drawn. Forecasts by technology, region and bus size are given and both numbers and market values are forecasted. For comparison, figures for light commercial vehicles and large buses including conventional ones are given. A technology roadmap for 2015-2025 is presented for the first time and interviews are reported from across the globe.

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