Car Traction Batteries: A $54 Billion Market by 2022

LI-ion Battery Safety



We are in the decade of the hybrid vehicle in terms of market value and the pure electric vehicle in terms of numbers. Users demand greater all-electric range from both of them. Consequently, their battery needs are converging now that the particular need of hybrids of good cycle life and fast charge discharge (energy density) is overcome with the rapid move to lithium-ion batteries. There are three generations of lithium-ion traction batteries in use today, with second generation being most popular. These generations represent different ways of managing the safety/performance/price compromise as shown below. As there is no inherently safe lithium-ion cell, safety is an on-going concern.



Safety and performance compromise of lithium-ion traction battery packs

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Source: IDTechEx http://www.IDTechEx.com/traction

Vehicle Range, Performance and Cost Metrics for Batteries



In order to give a car 200km of electric range, a 40kWh battery weighing 400kg is necessary. Such a huge, heavy device is not fitted into a car. The car is designed around it. The battery is the car. Indeed, the cost of hybrid car traction battery packs will increase as they transition from mild hybrids to range enhanced series plug-in hybrids that exceed the performance of mainstream conventional cars in parameters such as range. In ten years, the value of the traction battery may have risen from 27% to 57% of the ex-factory price of the car as a whole.

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Projection of electric car battery packs ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2012-2022

Source: IDTechEx http://www.IDTechEx.com/traction



Market forecasts for traction batteries for cars will be affected by many changing factors over the next ten years. Firstly, the capacity of battery differs greatly: no more than a few kWh for a golf car, 2-16 KWh for a typical hybrid and 20-60 kWh for a pure electric vehicle. Batteries for hybrids have to survive many rapid discharges. Batteries for pure electric cars must store more energy and do it for a longer time.



Then there is the technology. The golf car may keep its modest lead acid batteries and the same performance requirement for the next ten years but other pure electric cars will be required to have sharply improved range and performance over the decade, making the average battery price actually increase. This effect is boosted by lead acid driven Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs) and on-road cars becoming a much smaller proportion of the whole.



What's The Winning Chemistry?



The cathode has more influence on lithium-ion battery technical performance parameters than any other part. If we look at which cathode chemistry is offered by most suppliers these days then those with no cobalt, notably lithium iron phosphate LFP, are in the lead - we counted 20 using LFP and its variants though a few of these are backing other horses as well. Then there is the acid test of use in the field and here we see LFP traction battery chemistry successful in trucks, buses, cars, two wheelers, military vehicles and small and large boats of reputable companies. Doubt not. They work and, increasingly, they are in demand.



The only other option is less cobalt in the cathode (compared to the first generation lithium cobalt oxide) rather than no cobalt, this being done to provide a number of superior technical parameters over no cobalt options. The term encompasses a large number of sub-options of course but let us generalise. The less cobalt approach is used by two of the winners - Panasonic and LGChem and many other successful suppliers.



Increasingly there is also talk of titanate batteries lithium titanium oxide LTO but this refers to the anode, where replacing the traditional carbon in the form of graphite can lead to faster charging and other benefits. Batteries with LTO have been validated by the marketplace. They are in successful use in buses, cars and bikes and we have reason to believe that these anodes have created benefits appreciated by the users. By contrast, lithium vanadium oxide, silicon, tin, graphene and carbon nanotube anodes await significant market success: they are coming along.



Anyway, with applications as disparate as battle tanks and land, sea and air mobile robots, it is unlikely that one type of battery chemistry will serve everything. Even the needs of a hybrid vs a pure electric car are very different as we discuss in our report Car Traction Batteries: the New Gold Rush 2012-2022.



This report is intended for industrialists, investors, market researchers, legislators and others interested in the large new market now being created for batteries that propel cars along the road. It will also inform those studying associated technology and industrial and government initiatives. The report is suitable for the non-technical reader, with introductory appendices and glossary for those new to the subject. However, there are many comparison graphs and tables concerning technical aspects, so those with appropriate technical training will find much to interest them as well.