LCP Delta stresses UK needs to do more to meet net zero

Remarking on this effort, Sam Hollister, Head of Energy Economics, Policy and Investment, LCP Delta, said: “Delivering a clean power energy system by 2030 is technically achievable but it will need government, industry, regulators and investors to move heaven and earth to meet it. 

“What comes after though and achieving net zero by 2050 is arguably an even greater challenge. Except for offshore wind, the UK will need to build higher volumes of every energy technology between 2030-2050 than what it needs to build pre-2030. From a Capex spend perspective, this means that our investments need to increase from £120bn pre-2030 to £235bn between 2030-2050. Clean Power 2030 is the base camp of a mountain that the UK must climb by 2050.”

To reach what LCP Delta is terming ‘Clean Power 2030’, it has identified several barriers that industry, regulators and policymakers must overcome, including:

• Unprecedented scale up of all key low carbon technologies to deliver all technologies to their maximum feasible level by 2030. The rate of building new energy technologies in 2023 at 3GW was significantly below the 11.3GW build level required to reach 2030
• Significant increase in Contracts for Difference (CfD) budgets to deliver renewable capacity needed. 20GW of offshore wind needs to be procured across the next two CfD auctions which would require a 65% increase in budget on an equivalent basis compared to AR6. Yearly build of solar will need to increase to levels not seen since 2015, with CfD and rooftop solar significantly increased
• Clean Power 2030 is not achievable with the current development timelines for upgrading the transmission network
• Connection and planning delays are reducing investor confidence and hinders the most valuable and ready to go projects from connecting quickly. Unlocking the delays is critical
• Government needs to speed up decisions on key policies and market reforms to reduce uncertainty for investors. This includes a fast roll out of long duration cap and floor scheme and clear decisions on the REMA programme

“To reach Clean Power 2030 will need a gargantuan effort from all involved. The goal is technically feasible with the focus on low-cost renewable deployment – something the UK is well placed to achieve,” Hollister continued. “Meanwhile, to maintain a Clean Power system beyond 2030, the UK will need to develop a system that can cope with the increasing demand as we ramp up decarbonisation of transport and heating. This growth in demand will necessitate technologies such as carbon capture and storage and using clean fuels such as hydrogen in power generation. 

“In our scenario, we are expecting to see demand between 2030 to 2035 increase by 100TWh, this is more than double the increase expected from now to 2030. In 2035, we will need 10GW of gas carbon capture storage and 8GW of hydrogen, however, both these are reliant on accompanying infrastructure. Taking into account likely nuclear decommissioning at the end of the decade, we could be looking at up to 20GW of additional firm capacity that will need to be found to meet peak demand in 2035.

“There are only five years to achieve the levels of low carbon build that is required to reach Clean Power. We know there is always potential for delays in major infrastructure build and demand may be higher than currently, so we can’t just pick one scenario for Clean Power but aim to build all technologies to their maximum level.

“Renewables alone can’t get us there. We need other technologies such as long duration energy storage and low carbon thermal solutions such as gas carbon capture storage and hydrogen power generation to support a renewables-based energy system. Developing the transmission network to get energy from the north to the south, and scaling up capacity, particularly on local networks, is also one the biggest roadblock that needs to be overcome.”