Ariane-6 vs Falcon 9: can Europe compete with SpaceX?

The specifications

The Ariane-6 rocket, developed by ArianeGroup for the ESA, signifies a major technological leap for European space capabilities, and one crucial to European space-travel independence. The rocket is designed in two primary configurations: the A62 and the A64. The A62 configuration is equipped with two solid rocket boosters and is capable of carrying up to 10.3 metric tonnes to low Earth orbit (LEO). The more powerful A64 variant includes four solid rocket boosters, allowing it to deliver up to 21.6 metric tonnes to LEO​​.

An artist's rendition of a cutaway of Ariane 6.

The first stage of Ariane-6 is powered by the Vulcain 2.1 engine, an evolution of the Vulcain 2 engine used in Ariane-5. This engine provides robust thrust for the rocket's initial ascent. The upper stage of Ariane-6 is propelled by the Vinci engine, a new and advanced propulsion system designed to enhance the rocket's performance and flexibility. This engine allows for multiple restarts, enabling the rocket to deploy payloads into various orbits and to conduct controlled deorbiting manoeuvres, thus reducing space debris​.

The Ariane-6’s payload capacities in both configurations are competitive with other rockets in its class. The A64 variant, with a capacity of 21.6 metric tonnes to LEO, closely matches the payload capacity of its predecessor, the Ariane-5, but does so at roughly half the cost. This cost reduction is attributed to streamlined manufacturing processes and design efficiencies​.

Launch and deployment

The inaugural flight of Ariane-6 successfully deployed nine Cubesats into orbit, showcasing its capability to handle multiple payloads. This launch not only demonstrated the rocket's technical prowess but also the operational readiness of the new launch infrastructure at Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana. The mission included the deployment of NASA's Cubesat Radio Interferometry Experiment (CURIE), among other scientific payloads, indicating the rocket's versatility for various mission types​​.

Ariane 6’s launch zone at French Guinea.

The Ariane-6 has an ambitious flight schedule ahead, with plans to increase the number of annual launches progressively. Initial commercial flights are expected to begin later this year, and by 2027, the rocket is projected to conduct up to ten launches per year. This ramp-up is essential for meeting the growing demand for satellite deployment, including significant projects like Amazon's Kuiper constellation​.

Comparison with SpaceX's Falcon 9

Reusability

Reusability has been a game-changer in the space launch industry, significantly reducing costs and turnaround times for subsequent launches. The Falcon 9, developed by SpaceX, is partially reusable, with its first stage designed to return to Earth after launch. This stage can be refurbished and relaunched multiple times, drastically lowering the cost per mission over time. SpaceX has demonstrated this capability through numerous successful landings and reflights, setting new standards for cost efficiency and operational frequency in the industry​.

The Ariane-6, however, remains an expendable launch vehicle. Each rocket is used only once, which increases the per-launch cost compared to reusable systems. The European Space Agency (ESA) and its partners decided against incorporating reusability in the Ariane-6, citing the current low frequency of European launches as a reason. They argue that the economic benefits of reusability do not justify the additional development and operational complexities under their specific market conditions​.

Cost

The cost per launch is a critical factor for customers selecting a launch provider. SpaceX's Falcon 9 is priced at approximately $67 million per launch, a competitive rate that has attracted numerous commercial and governmental clients. This pricing is facilitated by SpaceX's vertical integration, streamlined manufacturing processes, and the reusability of the first stage​.

In contrast, the Ariane-6 aims to reduce costs from its predecessor, the Ariane-5, with an estimated launch cost of around €75 million ($81 million). Although this makes Ariane-6 competitive within its segment, the lack of reusability and the additional subsidies required from ESA member states add complexity to the cost structure. The European rocket’s actual per-launch cost might be higher than the nominal figures due to these subsidies​.

Payload capacity

Payload capacity is another essential aspect when comparing launch vehicles. The Falcon 9 can deliver up to 22.8 metric tonnes to low Earth orbit (LEO), providing substantial flexibility for various mission profiles, including large satellite deployments and complex constellations. This capacity, combined with the high launch frequency, makes the Falcon 9 a versatile and attractive option for clients​.

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 re-usable booster outside its Hawthorne headquarters.

The Ariane-6, specifically its A64 variant, can carry up to 21.6 metric tonnes to LEO, which is competitive with the Falcon 9. The A62 variant, with a capacity of 10.3 metric tonnes, caters to lighter payloads and different mission needs. While these capacities are impressive, the operational flexibility of the Falcon 9 and its ability to handle diverse mission requirements more frequently give it an edge.

Market presence and operational frequency

SpaceX has established a dominant market presence with its Falcon 9, launching missions almost weekly. This high operational tempo allows for rapid deployment of satellites and timely fulfilment of client requirements, contributing to SpaceX’s reputation for reliability and efficiency. The frequent launches also provide opportunities for economies of scale, further reducing costs and enhancing service delivery.

The Ariane-6, on the other hand, is expected to increase its launch frequency gradually. Following its successful debut, the rocket is slated to ramp up to six launches in 2025, eight in 2026, and ten in 2027. While this planned increase will enhance its market presence, it still falls short of the Falcon 9's operational frequency. This slower ramp-up may limit the Ariane-6's ability to compete directly with SpaceX, especially in the commercial sector where quick turnaround and flexibility are highly valued​.

Technological advancements

The Ariane-6 incorporates several advanced technologies, such as the Vinci engine, which allows for multiple restarts and precise payload deployment. This capability enhances mission flexibility, enabling the rocket to deliver payloads to various orbits and conduct controlled deorbiting to mitigate space debris. However, these advancements, while significant, do not match the transformative impact of the Falcon 9's reusability​.

The Falcon 9's ability to land and be reused not only reduces costs but also accelerates the launch cadence, allowing SpaceX to offer more competitive pricing and faster service. This technological edge has set a new benchmark in the industry, compelling other providers to explore reusability and other innovations to remain competitive.

Conclusion – too little, too late

The Ariane-6's successful debut marks a significant milestone for Europe's space programme, promising enhanced capabilities and reduced costs compared to its predecessor, the Ariane-5. Its advanced technologies, such as the Vinci engine, and multiple configurations make it a versatile option for a range of missions. However, the landscape of the space launch market has evolved rapidly, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 setting a high standard in terms of cost, reusability, and launch frequency. The high standards set by the Falcon 9 make it a tough competitor despite being the elder of the two rockets. The Ariane-6 will need to leverage its technological strengths and secure a niche in the market to stay relevant. However, given the current trajectory, it risks being seen as "too little, too late" in a rapidly advancing industry dominated by SpaceX’s innovative approach.